Given the high dependence of the world economy on oil and gas, opecs influence on the world market is evident. They basically produce two outlooks, a medium term outlook to 2020 and a long term outlook to. Opec 14 was down 193,000 barrels per day in november but that was after october production had been revised up by 94,000 bpd. Consumers may be smiling about the price at the pump, but. Opecs world oil outlook and pivot to asia seeking alpha. Although all market outlooks are subject to many risks, the may edition of eias shortterm energy outlook remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because the effects on energy markets of mitigation efforts related to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease covid19 are still evolving. Since its inception in 1983, the ieas oil market report omr has become recognised as one of the worlds most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for oecd and selected nonoecd countries. A world bank quarterly report april 2015 commodity. Global crude oil reserves opec share 20092018 statista. I found their medium term outlook pessimistic in some cases to optimistic in others. The low oil price has also had negative consequences for oil exporting countries. World oil outlook 2015 organization of the petroleum exporting countries. In 2020, eia forecasts global oil consumptionweighted gross domestic product gdp to decline by.
The oil cartel released its world oil outlook last week, showing opec crude production falling to 29. It was particularly affected by a slowdown in emerging markets. The balancing act a look at oil market fundamentals over. The balancing act a look at oil market fundamentals over the next five years 3 new projects despite the current global crude glut, numerous new projects are expected to come online in non opec countries over the next few years. This privacy policy applies to personal information processed by opec. Energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty, oct2009, pdf. Expectations have shifted toward a weaker price outlook because sanctions against iran are likely to be lifted in early 2016, the organization of the petroleum exporting countries opec has scrapped any pretense of a production ceiling, and u. The interplay bertween opec, us shale and supply interruptions. Opec s world oil outlook woo is part of the organizations commitment to market stability. The organization of the petroleum exporting countries opec.
As we have seen, these shifts in supply and demand had major effects on energy prices, particularly oil prices. Opecs oil supply and stabilize prices within a desired band. This rapid expansion was initially underestimated, as reflected in repeated upward revisions to the outlook for u. Commodity markets outlook april 2015 dissecting the four oil price crashes during the past half century, there have been four large oil price declines figure f. Nov 12, 2014 the oil cartel released its world oil outlook last week, showing opec crude production falling to 29. Global macro oils longterm outlook h2 2015 report wood. Opecs world oil outlook woo is part of the organizations commitment to market. New developments and production outlook executive summary the steep oil price decline over the last quarter is having repercussionsboth good and badacross the globe. As of september 2018, the member countries accounted for an estimated 44. Opec is committed to safeguarding the privacy of its website users. In 2015, world oil demand is projected to rise by 1. West texas intermediate wti crude oil prices have fallen around 23 percent so far in the fourth quarter.
By then, the cheap sources of oil will have been exhausted, making it more expensive to extract oil. The balancing act a look at oil market fundamentals over the. The fall in oil prices looks to have been largely driven by the strength of supply as nonopec production grew by a record amount and opec maintained its production. Oil demand reaches almost 110 mbd, with developing countries accounting for most of the growth total non opec supply peaks at 61. Starting in january of each year, each line shows the expected forecast of non opec supply for the specified calendar year, which tends to move toward the actual realized supply outcome as the year progresses. In 2017, the daily production of crude oil by opec countries stood at some 39. Global oil demand growth in 2014 is expected to be around 0. Nov 20, 2015 global macro oils longterm outlook h2 2015 report summary the macro oils update to our may 2015 longterm oil outlook to 2035 provides forecasts for opec and non opec supply, world oil demand and an oil price forecast for brent. The csis energy and national security program is pleased to host the u. Data from opec mazraati, 2010 stated that the aviation sector in 2006 was the second major consumer of total oil demand in the transportation sector 11.
The organization of the petroleum exporting countries opec has released the 2015 opec world oil outlook woo opecs woo is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the oil industry. Opecs contribution to the average world barrel of oil under pure monopoly conditions is unknown, but its share of world oil production was about 40% over the past five years, so we consider opecs exercise of market power with longrun elasticities and a market share of 40%. In a monthly report, the organization of the petroleum exporting countries opec forecast demand for the groups oil will drop to 28. Opec9 world oil outlook 2018 reference to 2040 shell10 shell scenarios 2018 sky to 2100 us eia11 international energy outlook 2017. Average daily trading volume in the futures market is almost 19x the volume in the physical market. Non opec supply expectations indicate changes in market sentiment concerning oil supply. A world bank quarterly report april 2015 commodity markets. The 2019 opec world oil outlook woo was launched today at the. According to mohammed barkindo, opecs secretary general, nonopec supplies surged last year and this is the reason why the cartel adjusted its. Dec 10, 2014 in a monthly report, the organization of the petroleum exporting countries opec forecast demand for the groups oil will drop to 28. This overview is based on the findings outlined in the opec world oil outlook 2015 woo. Dec 26, 2015 the opec 2015 world oil outlook came out a few days ago. May, 2016 opec left its forecast that world oil demand will rise by 1. By accessing this site, you accept that we process certain information you send e.
The glut has been caused by the sluggish demand, mainly in europe and japan, and by the significant rise in the u. Putting opec and non opec oil supply growth in recent years into perspective, it is observed that non opec supply growth between 2008 and 2015 was more than 7. Shortterm energy outlook energy information administration. Opec cuts 2015 demand forecast for its oil to lowest in a. This changed dramatically in late november 2014 after opec failed to agree on production cuts. But i found their long term outlook to be wildly optimistic in most cases. Pdf opec organization of petroleum exporting countries. The opec decision to maintain its production level of 30 mbd signaled a significant change in the cartels policy objectives from targeting an oil price band to. The woo 2015 emphasizes that oil will remain central to the global energy mix over the next 25 years, helping to satisfy the worlds growing energy needs. They basically produce two outlooks, a medium term outlook to 2020 and a long term outlook to 2040.
Policy research notes represent the views of the authors and do not necessarily represent wbg views or policy. By then, the cheap oil sources will have been exhausted, making it more expensive to extract oil. Even so, china remained the worlds largest growth market for energy. Opecs world oil outlook woo is part of the organizations commitment to market stability.
The opec data for the charts below are from the opec monthly oil market report. However in recent months the situation has changed. Global macro oils longterm outlook h2 2015 report summary the macro oils update to our may 2015 longterm oil outlook to 2035 provides forecasts for opec and nonopec supply, world oil demand and an oil price forecast for brent. The woo is opecs outlook for medium and longterm oil supply, demand, and downstream to 2040, factoring in the latest developments in global oil markets and opec production adjustments. What are the causes of the sharp drop and what is the outlook for oil prices.
We focus on the us eias 2017 international energy outlook because the 2018 edition includes limited data for a limited number of countries. The opec oil raised slightly its world oil demand forecast for 2015, while acknowledging that there remains a supply glut on the market. But growth in nonopec production is set to lose momentum after a few years. Between 2019 and 2025, global oil demand is forecast to grow at an average. International energy outlook 20 ieo20, published in july 20. Starting in january of each year, each line shows the expected forecast of nonopec supply for the specified calendar year, which tends to move toward the actual realized supply outcome as the year progresses. High oil prices during the early 1980s led to a gradual increase in non opec supplies, especially from alaska, mexico, and north sea most of it offshore. It presents a comprehensive outlook for oil demand, supply and the downstream for the medium 2015 2020 and longterm 20202040. Since its inception in 1983, the ieas oil market report omr has become recognised as one of the worlds most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for. Opec organization of petroleum exporting countries has been partly blamed for instigating such price instabilities. The opec 2015 world oil outlook came out a few days ago.
Dec 07, 2017 the csis energy and national security program is pleased to host the u. High oil prices during the early 1980s led to a gradual increase in nonopec supplies, especially from. Discord among opec countries, a stronger dollar and extreme positioning by speculators in the paper market also contributed to the selloff. World energy outlook 20 weo20, published in november 20. The balancing act a look at oil market fundamentals over the next five years 3 new projects despite the current global crude glut, numerous new projects are expected to come online in nonopec countries over the next few years.
The fts anjli raval reports on how the outlook for oil is being shaped by a tug of war between opec plus a group of producers who recently agreed. The current expectation is for a rise in tight crude of 1. Opecs world oil outlook to be launched 23 december 2015. The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the oil industry. Opec s contribution to the average world barrel of oil under pure monopoly conditions is unknown, but its share of world oil production was about 40% over the past five years, so we consider opec s exercise of market power with longrun elasticities and a market share of 40%. Opec left its forecast that world oil demand will rise by 1. Opecs world oil outlook 2017 center for strategic and. Opec signals greater oil glut in 2016 as its output surges.
The steep oil price decline over the last quarter is having repercussionsboth good and badacross the globe. The publication is a means to highlight and further the. In terms of supply, the lower oil price environment is expected to see overall nonopec supply decline in the period 20162017, before slowly rising again to 2021. Ieej8 outlook 2019 reference to 2050 opec9 world oil outlook 2018 reference to 2040 shell10 shell scenarios 2018 sky to 2100 us eia11 international energy outlook 2017 reference to 2050 note. Opec and the ieej project consumption of roughly 720 qbtu in 2040, similar to the absolute levels of growth from the previous 25 years. The analysis includes the impacts of worldwide shifts in demographics. This statistic depicts opecs share of global crude oil reserves from 2009 to 2018. The world oil outlook combines the expertise of the opec secretariat, professionals in opec member countries and the organizations economic commission board, as well as input from various other sources.
The woo is opec s outlook for medium and longterm oil supply, demand, and downstream to 2040, factoring in the latest developments in global oil markets and opec production adjustments. World oil outlook 20 woo20, published in november 20. With big oil producers that are not members of the organization of petroleum exporting countries meeting this weekend after the socalled cartels much. In the first quarter of 2015 the world total oil supply exceeded demand by the record 2.
Recently, and since the latter part of 2014, in the fear that the shale resource developments may affect the market share of the opec producers, oil prices have dropped significantly because of opec countries, while suffering. In 2015, the opec countries owned nearly 82 percent of the total crude oil reserves worldwide. The organization of the petroleum exporting countries opec has released the 2015 opec world oil outlook woo opecs woo is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the oil industry it is also a channel to encourage dialogue, cooperation and transparency between opec and other stakeholders within the. Relative to last year, the outlook for advanced economies is improving, while growth in emerging market and. I consent to my data being collected, stored, and processed in line with the opec data protection policy, whose. Nonopec supply expectations indicate changes in market sentiment concerning oil supply. Apr 12, 2017 the fts anjli raval reports on how the outlook for oil is being shaped by a tug of war between opec plus a group of producers who recently agreed to curb output, and a resurgent us shale industry. Global growth remains moderate, with uneven prospects across the main countries and regions. The increase in the overall requirement for opec crude between 2015 and.
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